Political Nut

Hillary Clinton on the Issues

2008-01-09T07:21:00.001-06:00

Abortion - Supports abortion rights

Gun Control - Supports licensing and registration of handguns, mandatory trigger locks for handguns, holding adults responsible for their children's use of guns, raising the youth handgun ban from age 18 to 21, limiting gun sales to one per month and allowing the Consumer Products Safety Commission regulate guns.

Health Care - Wants to mandate individual health insurance coverage for all Americans. Offer federal subsidies for those who cannot afford it and allow individuals to choose private plans also offered to members of Congress, as well as a new public insurance plan modeled after Medicare. Requires insurance companies to offer coverage to anyone who applies, and bars insurance companies from charging higher premiums to those with pre-existing condidtions. Requires large businesses to provide or help pay for employee coverage. Expands Medicaid and federal children's health care programs. Offers tax credits to limit health care premiums to a certain percentage a family's income. Cost estimated at $110 billion annually, to be paid for by eliminating the Bush tax cuts for those earning over $250,000, as well as by reducing waste and inefficiencies in the current system. Also limits the amount employers can exclude from taxes for health care benefits for those making over $250,000.

Immigration - Supported Bush-backed immigration reform legislation, which would have increased funding and improved border security technology, improved enforcement of existing laws, and provided a legal path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexican border.

War in Iraq - Voted for use of troops in Iraq, but now opposes the war. Voted for war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Opposed Bush plan to increase the number of American troops in Iraq. Supports a phased redeployment and a cap on the number of American troops in Iraq.

Gay Marriage - Opposes same-sex marriage but supports civil unions. She says states should decide the issue. Opposes a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

Social Security - Opposes the Bush plan allowing workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes into private retirement accounts.

Taxes - Opposes the Bush tax cuts

Taking a Closer Look at the Iowa Results

2008-01-03T23:42:00.000-06:00

The story on the Democrat side of Thursday's results in Iowa wasn't so much that Barak Obama won but rather Hillary Clinton got 3rd behind John Edwards. Obama received 38%, Edwards 30%, and Clinton 29%. The rest of the Democrat ticket combined for only 3% of the turnout.

With Republicans, Huckabee and Romney broke away from the pack with 34% and 25% of the vote. The big shocker in this one was Guiliani only getting 3%.Guiliani came in 6th amongst GOP candidates trailing 5th place Ron Paul by a whopping 7%. Thompson and McCain tied for 3rd with 13%.

Democrats		Republicans
Obama	38%	Huckabee	34%
Edwards	30%	Romney	25%
Clinton	29%	Thompson	13%
Richardson	2%	McCain	13%
Biden	1%	Paul	10%
Dodd	0%	Guiliani	3%
Gravel	0%	Hunter	0%
Kucinich	0%	Tancredo	0%

Looking at the numbers the Clinton camp has to be a little worried about a snowball effect. Should Obama, Edwards, and Clinton finish in the same exact order in New Hampshire expect the spread to be larger with Obama taking from both candidates.

It is a troubling sign for a campaign such as Romney's to pour so much money into a primary and finish 9 points back. When asked about his thoughts on being beat by he said he was happy to cut Huckabee's lead in half. Sorry folks, when the money spent in the final week of a campaign is so heavy and so lobsided the campaign spending the money should only be 3 points from the lead in most worst case scenarios. His numbers should rebound in New Hampshire.

Guiliani knew he was tanking in Iowa a few weeks ago and deployed the cut-and-run tactic to try and get a head start on New Hampshire. This is a dangerous tactic because voters aren't always rational and as a mass are prone to further trends seen in recent primaries. That said I believe he will rebound in New Hampshire but will find things less inviting as he moves into states farther away from the Atlantic. The evangelical vote will eventually sink him.

By now most of you must be expecting me to declare Huckabee as the GOP Nominee. I'm not going to do that. I don't think we will have a truly clear picture until there is a more diverse set of results. However, Thompson, McCain, Paul, and Guiliani must put themselves within 10% of the leader over the course of the next two primaries. Those that cannot accomplish that are done and should drop out.

Undorsements for Iowa

2007-12-28T17:28:00.000-06:00

The Iowa primaries are just a few days away and I haven't got a clear idea of who I would vote for if I lived in Iowa. However, I do have a couple of ideas why I wouldn't vote for a few candidates. Here are my undorsements for next week's primary.

Mitt Romney
His stances on the issues flip when it appears politically advantagious. His position on abortion changed around the same time he began exploring the road to the White House.

Hillary Clinton
The only thing she serves is her own political ambitions.

Rudy Guliani
He would be running as a Democrat if he lived in any state other than New York. His views don't match his party monicker.

Cynthia mcKinney at it Again

2007-12-28T13:53:00.000-06:00

Controversy caused her to lose the Democratic Congressional primary runoff in 2006.

Now she wants to be the first African-American woman President of the United States from the Green Party.

Campaign site

Political Nut Election Guide

2007-12-20T07:31:00.000-06:00

Its important that voters know what positions the candidates have on the issues. Therefore, we will publish posts showing where they stand by the issue as well a complete profile for a specific candidate.

January Primary Schedule

2007-12-18T22:36:00.000-06:00

The primaries are upon us. These are the states nominating in the month of January.

• January 3: Iowa
• January 8: New Hampshire
• January 5: Wyoming (R)
• January 15: Michigan
• January 19: Nevada, South Carolina (R)
• January 26: South Carolina (D)
• January 29: Florida

source: National Association of Secretaries of State

Congress Passes bill to Address Oil Refinery Shortages in United States

2006-06-13T09:53:00.000-05:00

Gas prices have become a big deal throughout the country. Here Congress has passed bill 5254 to address this issue. This bill has obvious political ramnifications. It also has huge supply-side potential. More U.S. refineries makes will lower fuel prices around the world.

"No new refinery has been built in the United States in 30 years, and the high gas prices we're experiencing at the pump are directly related to our nation's lack of refinery capacity," Souder said. "In fact, there are currently 148 operating refineries in the United States, down from 324 in 1981. The result has been a bottleneck in domestic refining and an increased reliance on foreign refineries. This bill would make it easier to construct new refineries here in the United States."
"In early May, the Democrats took advantage of the parliamentary process and killed this bill," Souder added. "Fortunately, we were able to bring it back up for consideration, and it was passed today." - Congressman Mark Souder (IN3), co-author of the bill.

The Refinery Permit Process Schedule Act would:

Establish a federal coordinator to convene all U.S. government agencies responsible for issuing permits to develop a refinery facility, and help them coordinate and expedite their schedules so that decisions on permits can move more efficiently;
direct the President to identify at least three closed military bases as suitable sites for new refineries, one of which must be designated for biofuel refining;
give the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency priority in the scheduling coordination, thereby preserving the strict environmental standards that must be met for these facilities to be developed.

H.R. 5254 will now be sent to the Senate for further action.

What Does the Death of Al-Zarqawi Really Mean?

2006-06-09T13:00:00.000-05:00

We all remember the "mission accomplished" fiasco, and the promises of brighter times after the capture of Saddam. The Bush Administration has learned from those episodes because it is being tight-lipped about better times due to the killing of Al-Qiada in Iraq Leader Al-Zarqawi.

They are taking a wait-see attitude on this one because they aren't yet sure of what it actually means for the war on terror. Here are a few of the scenarios on which they are looking.

If the power structure for the terror cell was concentrated in Al-Zarqawi and a few others, then the logistical, and financial means of Al- qaida in Iraq may cause it to implode.

There is also the chance that there will be an internal power-struggle amongst mid-level leaders. A civil war so to speak within the cell. This may also cause the terror cell to splinter into several smaller cells.

Whichever road Al-Qaida in Iraq travels will have ramnifications for President Bush and Republican leaders come the November Elections. It is too early to tell whether this will stem the tide of problems for the GOP or be another "Mission Accomplished" fiasco.

Culture of Corruption Platform not Working

2006-06-09T12:39:00.000-05:00

Democrats are now in scramble mode for their current platform. In the wake of the Abramoff, Delay, and Cunningham scandals. Most had put the culture of corruption issue at the top of their platforms.

In Cunningham's district, Republican Brian Bilbray defeated Democrat Francine Busby to fill out the remainder of Cunningham's term. Busby ran on the culture of corruption issue.

Democrats and Republicans alike were looking at this district as a litmus test to judge their/ their opponent's strength's and weaknesses on the issue. If there were ever a district that could be susceptible to the corruption issue it would be California Congressional District 50.

Why didn't this issue take hold as much as the Democrats thought it would? Because it can't be used as a primary issue. As a candidate you need to campaign on what your plans are once you are in office. If your goal is accomplished just be being elected then voters won't vote you in.

The corruption issue is a supplementary issue. It is to be used in conjunction with a platform built on things that are to be worked towards while in office. While it will give them a nudge upward at the polls, and in some cases put them over the top, for the most part it will not be as strong of a topic as they felt it would be.

For Democratic party to become successful it must return to being the party of ideas rather than be the anti Bush/GOP Party.

Hillary vs Big Al

2006-06-07T00:20:00.000-05:00

Hillary Clinton is currently the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. However, her polarizing persona is causing Democrats to question whether she has what it takes to take on a Republican challenger.

In a recent Rasmussen poll, 38% said that they would definetly vote against her in a general election. That doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room with independents.

In recent elections the most visible potential candidates have struggled when it came time for the primaries. A prime example is DNC chairman Howard Dean. He was the early favorite until Democrats questioned his viability after a couple of PR snaffus. That caused a shift from him to other candidates. Hillary is in danger of having the same thing happen to her.

There will probably be around six candidates for the nomination. Should one gain momentum early they will overtake her for the nomination. One potential suspect is Al Gore. His vocal opposition to the Iraq war and the sagging popularity of Bush could cause voters to take a second look at him.

Al stands a better chance at beating a Republican candidate than Hillary does.

The Kennedy Factor

2006-05-04T17:44:00.000-05:00

There is another scandal brewing in Washington. Congressman Patrick Kennedy crashed into a barracade last night around 3am. Officers who responded to the scene were denied the chance to administer a breathalizer by their superiors. Kennedy has a history of substance abuse problems.

A Capitol Police officer stated that Kennedy appeared to be staggering when he left the vehicle. Kennedy denies being under the influence of alcohol and told the officer he was in the accident because he was late for a vote. The last vote of the day had been around 9pm.

The Congressman from the 1st district of Rhode Island may see pressure from an opponent should he get an opponent. However it is unlikely that it will cause him the election as his district is between between 60-68% Democrat.

However it does bring problems for the Democrats on a national level. They had been hoping to use corruption as a platform to take back both Congress and Senate. This incident gives the impression of entitlement by Democrats and weakens that corruption position.

The Politics of Gasoline Prices

2006-04-26T08:27:00.000-05:00

I've seen several journalist tout how gasoline will hurt Republicans in elections this fall. This is just a small post to tell you that isn't going to happen.

Here's why

The general election is in the fall when gas prices are declining.
Investigations into the practices of the oil industry have been viewed as bipartisian.
The general view is that both parties are culpible for the perceived inaction taken against the oil industry.

Can Democrats Take back the House?

2006-04-20T14:05:00.000-05:00

I've been reading many articles by hopeful Democratic pollsters that think their party can take control of Congress in 2006. They site the myriad of issues that have pounded the Republican party over the last year. Abramoff, Katrina, Iraq, and domestic spying have made Republicans weak in the upcoming elections.

History has shown that when the party in power is shown to be as weak as the Republicans are now, the minority party devours the majority power. Many journalists and pollsters are quick to make this claim.

The comparison is pretty much worthless. In those days there were more people who would today be considered swing voters. But most importantly, both parties were closer in terms of strength and identity.

Today's Democratic party is in the midst of an identity crisis. For them to take full advantage of the Republican weakness they need to be a strong party with a platform that resonates with voters.

Some may ask what is my evidence that the Democrats aren't going to surge over Republican territories? According to polls there are not massive amounts of Republican incumbents battling their Democratic rivals.

Republican incumbents are actually in more danger from their primary opponents than Democrats. The weakness of the GOP is only manifesting itself in its ability to challenge Democrat incumbents.

When all's said and done the ebb and flow of party wins and losses will result in a stalemate where Republicans retain the majority.

Romney's Insurance Plan

2006-04-07T14:43:00.000-05:00

Mitt Romney has proposed an ''individual mandate" for Massachusetts residents to obtain health insurance. So far there have been hardly any positive responses to the proposal by voters.

The intent of the bill is to lower the amount his state pays on health care cost. But it will have a negative economic impact on the economy as it will require its residents to pay more than the state saves with the bill.

But there is another cost with this proposal. Mitt Romney is considered a Presidential hopeful for 2008. His proposal has had national exposure and is unpopular with many Republican and Democrat voters alike. He could loss the White House with this bill.

Compromise Found on Immigration Reform

2006-04-06T15:12:00.000-05:00

I can't yet comment on whether the apparent deal brokered between Congress and the Senate covers all the issues surrounding attempts at immigration reform. The final details are not yet available. But here is what has been announced at this point as far as the illegal immigration issue.

Those with less than two consecutive years in the U.S. would be required to return home without assurances they would be able to return.

Illegal immigrants between two years and five years have to return to their home country briefly, and then re-enter as temporary workers before applying for citizenship.

Those with five or more years of residency would not be required to return home.

This is a vital issue for Republicans. Its conservative base wants more done to curb illegal immigration while its latino base, which is quickly growing, fears that they are being discriminated against.

Cynthia McKinney Vulnerable in the Primary

2006-04-05T00:53:00.000-05:00

Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney's altercation with a Capital police officer will probably cost her. Whether charges are brought against the Georgia congresswoman have not been decided her public image has taken a hit.

Last Wednesday McKinney reportedly hit a security officer at a security checkpoint at the entrance to a House office building when confronted about going around a metal detector.

After the incident McKinney has stated in interviews that the security workers should be able to recognize every House member by face.

For those who have never been to Washington, a security officer sees several thousand people per day on top of the 535 members of Congress. To make additional demands on these servants is impractical. McKinney comes off as self-serving and ignorant of the responsibilities of the security personnel for making such a demand.

In a CNN interview on Monday McKinney stated that the incident was the result of "racial profiling" and was "instigated by the inappropriate touching and stopping of me, a female black congresswoman."

This didn't have anything to do with race. Capital police wouldn't be doing their job if they allowed an unidentified person into the building who bypassed security measures. In 1998 there was a shooting that took the life of two of their coworkers in an incident that started out in the same manner as McKinney's (story).

McKinney lost her seat in Congress the last time she made controversial comments in an election year. She didn't take her seat back by defeating the person who first beat her. She got the position as her successor tried to get a Senate seat.

Denise Majette defeated McKinney in 2002 but vacated the seat in an unsuccessful bid for the Senate in 2004. She is currently listed as a candidate for Georgia's State Superintendent of Schools. This new controversy may cause her to change gears and reclaim her seat from McKinney.

I just have one word of advice for Congresswoman McKinney. As a member of Congress you are a servant of the people. A servant of the people should be neither seen nor heard. Their very existance should only be recognized through the good works in which they had their hand.

I'm Back

2006-04-04T01:25:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the lapse in posts. I've been on vacation.

Is Yahoo Media?

2006-03-09T12:05:00.000-06:00

The question is whther Yahoo is considered to be part of the media. If the answer is yes then it raises another question. Has it overstepped its bounds in the race for California Governor? see Schwarzenegger in Trouble

Is the sponsored ad for Westly found on the search for Angelides a campaign rules violation? I don't know the answer to that.

There are rules governing the media and campaign promotions. Yahoo is based in California and one of its founders, Jerry Yang, is a large contributor to Arnold. Thus there is the potential of a conflict of interest.

I've posed to the question to California Secretary of State Bruce McPherson's office.

Schwarzenegger in Trouble

2006-03-09T11:26:00.000-06:00

California politics. Where anyone with a million dollars in their pocket can dream of being an elected official. An analysis of voting trends in this state leave me to believe in one conclusion. California voters are an erratic group with schitzophrenic tendencies.

The incumbant is celebrity actor Arnold Schwarzenegger. He is a Republican with family ties with the greatest democratic dynasty of our nation, the Kennedy family. But those ties aren't helping him out any. His popularity is at 41%. His hiring of liberal cabinet members and the Rob Reiner fiasco (see Hugh Hewitt for more on that) are costing him his Republican base.

He will face either Phil Angelides or Steve Westly in November. Angelides is the state treasurer while Westly is the state controller. Both have the credibility to challenge Arnold on the issue of the state's finances.

Both candidates are largely unknown to voters even though they are incumbants. Polls show Angelides is slightly more popular than Westly. However, Westly has $6 million more in reserve in his campaign warchest than his rival. I expect that extra dough to help him in raising his name ID to even the score with Angelides. Whoever wins the Democratic primary could potentially rout the embattled incumbant.

Westly Tops Angelides on Yahoo

In researching this article I did a search on yahoo for Phil Angelides on Yahoo. I found a sponsored link for Steve Westly at the top of the page. Cudos to the Westly team for pulling off that one. Look for this to be a new campaign tool for other campaigns.

Campaign Sites
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Phil Angelides
Steve Westly

Arkansas Race to be a Hot One

2006-03-09T09:57:00.000-06:00

Arkansas, the land that Bill Clinton built, is hosting one of the most dynamic gubernatorial races in the country in 2006. Incumbant Mike Huckabee, a Republican, owns a 60% approval rating. Normally that would speak well for a Republican candidate (Huckabee is ineligible for another term).

Asa Hutchison, the man who replaced Tom Ridge as the undersecretary for the Department of Homeland Security, has a true fight on his hands to win the job. Being a former appointee of George W. Bush may be acting as a handicap to the candidate.

On the Democratic ticket there are two. They are Attorney General Mike Beebe, and Bill Halter a former cabinet member of the Clinton Administration. A current elected official versus a member of the Clinton White House smells like a barn burner.

Unfortunately for Halter this primary hasn't ignited like he would have liked. The nuances of elections are playing a major role. Halter has been out of the limelight for a while and his political capital has grown stale. Whereas Beebe is an incumbant for a statewide position and has been before the voters at the polls recently (2002).

Halter also jumped into the race too late. His only hope is for Bill Clinton to make a strong commitment to his campaign.

So most likely Arkansas voters will see Mike Beebe and Asa Hutchison on the ballot for November. Polls show this race would be highly contested with Beebe having the advantage.

Campaign Websites:
Asa Hutchison
Mike Beebe
Bill Halter

Nepotism Killing Alaskan Governor's Re-Election Bid

2006-03-08T11:36:00.000-06:00

Frank Murkowski was a popular Senator from Alaska. When he won the governor's race in 2002 he made an audacious move. He appointed his daughter Lisa to replace him in the seat he vacated. The issue is at the forefront of voters minds and can possibly cause both to lose their jobs. His popularity ranges between 25-35%, an all-time low for an Alaskan Governor.

Sarah Palin is challenging Murkowski. As long as she maintains a pulse through the primary she will face the Democratic primary winner in November.

Eric Croft will face Ethan Berkowitz for the Democratic ticket. Berkowitz is the State House minority leader who comes off as an intelligent and charming personality. He is the favored to beat Croft.

While the state of Alaska is predominately Republican, I predict Berkowitz will beat Palin in a close race come November. His charisma and experience in the state house will carry him.

Inside Alabama

2006-03-08T10:40:00.000-06:00

Bob Riley is the incumbant running against the former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore who was removed from his post for insisting the 10 commandments be displayed in front of the state courthouse.

While a majority of the state's residents back Moore's stance on the display he remains a longshot in beating Riley. Barring a scandal Riley will beat Moore.

The situation looks the same for the Democratic primary. Lt. Gov Lucy Baxley is winning the battle against former governor Dan Siegelman. Siegelman is struggling in his race because he is under federal indictment for racketeering charges. His trial is set for one month before the primary.

Odds are it will be Riley vs Baxley come November. Rasmussen polls the race at 53% to 37% in favor of Riley. I don't see any reason to disagree with those numbers.

Campaign Websites:
Bob Riley
Roy Moore
Lucy Baxley
Dan Siegelman

A Nation in Review - Gubernatorial Races

2006-03-08T10:18:00.000-06:00

Now that we are in March, most candidates who intend to run have filed their candidacy. Over the course of the next week or so this site will examine all the primaries for governor (where applicable) and give an idea of how those races are shaping up.

DeLay Baffles the Mind

2006-03-07T08:23:00.000-06:00

There are questions about Tom DeLay's ethics and his connections with lobbyists. So common thought is keep your nose clean, stay away from those types and you might have a chance at re-election.

Last night two friends and former colleagues, Bill Paxon and Susan Molinari, hosted a fundraiser for DeLay. The problem is these people are now lobbyists. While I understand the pressure from Tom to not hurt his friends' feelings by not having the fundraiser, he still should have declined. On the same token, if they were his true friends they would have realized the position they were putting him in and not offered to host the gala.

This gives voters in Texas new doubt as to whether Tom DeLay is a reformed man. Its making it easier for Campbell to pull off a win in this primary.

For more on this race.

Hillary Angry at Critics

2006-03-06T15:03:00.000-06:00

"When you run as a Democrat, and in particular, when you run as a Democratic woman, whether you're running at the local, state or national level, it's likely you're going to draw some unfriendly fire, People will be attacking you instead of your ideas, they may impugn your patriotism, they may even say you're angry." - Hillary Clinton at a fundraiser by black and Hispanic women supporters.

Candidates should never allow stale criticism of themselves to gain new life by attacking those critics. Attack them while the story is fresh but never allow it to gain new life.I expect that this will cause a whole new uproar on her "angry" demeanor.

Repetition of issues, whether factual or not, can cause voters to think about that issue when they go to the polls. Comments like this will undoubtably contribut in keeping Hillary Clinton from the White House.

Why Democrats Want Immediate Vote on Port Deal

2006-03-06T10:00:00.000-06:00

Democrats have called for an immediate vote on the UAE port deal. This call for a vote is not about national security. Its about November.

Republican members of Congress have been preaching to their constituents that they want a deeper look into the deal and prefer not to make rash decisions. By going against the White House on this they have regained the satisfaction of Americans on the national security issue.

Democrats know that this will deal be defeated in a vote. But they need the issue to go away now. The longer this plays out the more it goes into favor with Republicans.

Oberweis Makes Boneheaded Campaign Move

2006-03-02T08:17:00.000-06:00

The Chicago Tribune reports "Republican governor candidate Jim Oberweis is launching two TV ads that use made-up newspaper headlines to attack front-runner Judy Baar Topinka's integrity."
"The words are displayed as if they appeared on the front pages of the Tribune, the Chicago Sun-Times, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the State Journal-Register of Springfield."

Campaign manager Joe Wiegand said the "text is excerpted" from articles from those publications. A Tribune review of the stories in question couldn't find the exact words presented in the ads.

This is wrong in so many levels from a campaign side. Oberweis is attacking the integrity of his opponent using questionable tactics. This is backfiring on him. Instead of hurting Topinka's integrity it is smearing his own.

In the end only one basic rule of campaigns was broken. Don't make things up, don't lie.

Democrats Trying to Re-make Florida into Battleground State

2006-02-28T22:15:00.000-06:00

California Congressman Henry Waxman (D) of California called on Jeb Bush to explain his role in the award of the "lucrative contract," which was given to the Florida-based company without a full competitive bid process. The e-mails Waxman released were provided to Congress by Michael Brown, former director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The governor's spokesman, Russell Schweiss made a statement regarding the issue. "The governor's involvement was merely facilitating contact with a corporate citizen of Florida that was seeking to provide immediate housing relief. Any assertion the governor had to do with any contracting negotiations or further action by FEMA is unfounded."

Congressman Waxman is trying to make a scandal where there just isn't one. Sure it was a lucrative contract. Americans are familiar with the convenience store concept. You pay a premium for convenience and expediency.

The need for expediency was definitely evident in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane. Congressman Waxman wants to Know why Jeb didn't go through the slow bureaucratic process of competitive bids. If he had this would still be in a bidding situation.

This appears to be an attempt by Democrats to weaken Jeb's popularity in the state in order to take over the governor's mansion and other legislative seats. Should anything become of this it could put Florida in play for many seats this year and potentially for the 2008 Presidential elections.

My Little Experiment

2006-02-28T00:02:00.000-06:00

Many of my readers questioned whether I was joking when I ran the piece concerning legislation to ban Republicans from adopting. For them I can answer that I was not joking. Nor was I sincere in my reporting.

That article was a social experiment. How often do we read articles that are incomplete, but fail to question whether what they tell us is true?

Now this was an easy one for people to identify as poorly written. But journalists often do the same thing. However it is much more difficult to recognize the fallacies in their writing (This is not a piece lamblasting the MSM). It is up to the reader to make an informed decision. Too often we take what we read at face value. This can be applied to almost every topic printed about the goings-on in government.

In my experiment, 10 people commented. Each referred to this as a response to the bill against adoptions by gay/ lesbian couples. But that was only part of what I was looking for in my experiment. I wanted to see if anybody would link to the bill itself (HB 515). Nobody did that. The best somebody did was link to another media story on the subject.

My point to all this. Information can be dangerous when used in an unsafe manner. The stories we write about have the ability to shape the way people make decisions such as voting. Too often do we give second hand reporting or put our own views in lew of the facts when we write.

Sorry to those who want to read the post from yesterday. It was never intended to stay up for more than a day. Here is the link from which it was derived from.

The Joke's on Blagojevich

2006-02-25T00:14:00.000-06:00

In case yo haven't heard. Here is the story on how Comedy Central's John Stewart made a fool of Governor Rod Blagojevich. The Democratic governor says he didn't realize "The Daily Show" was a comedy spoof of the news when he sat down for an interview with the show.

In Blagojevich's defense, you hire staff to investigate these things ahead of time. When they fail to do their job this is what happens.

It never ceases to amaze me that shows like this are able to do this to cndidates year after year. Blagojevich won't be the last to have the object of such a prank.

This is a good lesson for all campaigns. Know who you're talking to. While it seems like an innocent incident it hurts a candidate's credibility. To seem clueless about pop culture turns away voters 35ish and under.

Liberal Theory: Conservative Women are Closet Lefties

2006-02-24T08:39:00.000-06:00

Gun Toting Liberal made this remark on the virtual silence of the conservative blogosphere.

"Here is why I think the popular right wing bloggers are remaining largely silent on whether or not this was the right thing for the South Dakota lawmakers to do: if a large number of voices from the right were to begin weighing in with "yeah, let's ban all abortions" type opinions, you can just kiss the Republican Party and the conservative movement goodbye. It would amount to political suicide for them because I firmly believe that countless conservative women would suddenly move away from the Republican agenda to stand solidly with the left to defend a woman's right to choose."

I think this statement is an insult to conservative women who believe in family values. Furthermore I think he sees a fragility in the conservative movement that isn't there. What does he base his conclusions on? Had his hypothesis been even remotely correct President Bush would never had been elected let alone been elected let alone re-elected.

My thought as to why there hasn't been a lot of noise from conservatives on this matter. Because nothing's happened yet. We're waiting to see the process unfold. As things approach the Supreme Court for review there will be more gab.

Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu Challenges Ray Nagin For Mayor in Big Easy

2006-02-23T08:49:00.000-06:00

Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu entered the race for mayor of New Orleans citing new leadership is needed to "restore our credibility nationally and internationally."

The primary will enter unchartered territory for elections after more than half of its residents are still scattered across the country. Election activity is typically predictable and stable with a small portion acting as independents.

With voters scattered nobody is really sure what turnout will be like. They also aren’t sure what the political makeup is at this moment. Odds are its strongly Democrat but nobody will know until fall how much this political landscape has changed.

One thing is for sure. With a credible alternative, Ray Nagin is vulnerable to voters holding him accountable for his handling of Hurricane Katrina preparations.

Charlie Wilson Denied Spot on Ballot

2006-02-22T21:56:00.000-06:00

Charlie Wilson's attempt to succeed Ted Strickland as a Congressman from Ohio has become a little more difficult. The election board in Lisbon Ohio ruled that he did not file enough signatures to be put on the ballot for the primary. Currently his only recourse is through legal or procedural challenges.

If he is unable to win these challenges Democrats will have failed to put a candidate on the ballot for a seat that they traditionally hold. This would be an unanticipated pickup for the Republicans.

Congress, the Catspaw of the President

2006-02-22T11:54:00.000-06:00

A member at Redstate made this observation regarding the port deal.

"One must wonder if the White House did not want this deal with the UAE, but couldn't say no, so they've let Congress do it for W and W comes out looking like roses to the allies."

I'm not convinced. But if it is then this would be a brilliant move using Congress as his catspaw.

Is Prayer Bill a Political Ploy?

2006-02-22T10:49:00.000-06:00

The ACLU states that legislation introduced by Mike Sodrel is nothing more than a political ploy.
The bill would prevent federal courts from ruling on the content of speech in legislatures. It is in response to a ruling by Judge David Hamilton who said that Indiana House sessions could not begin by endorsing any particular religion.

I agree on concept. It is not the state's job to "endorse" religion. But when a statesman stands before his peers and prays it is not for the state. It is for his/ her own moral and religious guidance in the decisions they are about to make. Its that person's right under the constitution to have freedom of speech.

Was this bill a political ploy? Most certainly. But it was a political ploy in response to a political ploy by a Judge legislating from the bench.

Sorry if I seem cynical about the ACLU but that is because of their history of discriminatory practices in fighting for civil rights.

Has President Bush Exhausted His Political Capital?

2006-02-22T07:29:00.000-06:00

The port deal has caused a rift between the President and his party. Some members of Congress, U.S. Senators, and Governors belonging to the Republican party are voicing their concerns about the port deal that would see 6 U.S. ports managed by a firm from the United Arab Emirates.

I won't argue whether this is a good deal or not. Its the public relations sell that is killing this deal. The White House has not done a good enough job to prove that this is a safe deal. If they can't give details to the public due to national security, fine. But the fact that members of Congress and the Senate are being left in the dark just gives the impression that the deal isn't as good as the President implies.

The President isn't in a position to try a strong armed tactic on this issue. he's on the defensive and needs to prove what he says about the deal.

Democrats Not Taking Advantage of Bob Ney's Vulnerability

2006-02-22T07:04:00.000-06:00

Bob Ney is supposededly a top target for Democrats due to ties to Jack Abramoff. But they haven't been able to get a candidate to take him on.

Ney will face challenges from either Joe Salzer or Zach Space to retain his job. Neither of these candidates can beat him. Their opponent can only lose.

But there is a bigger story here. With a republican candidate so vulnerable and high profile, the Democrats seem to have dropped the ball. They could have really hammered the Republicans with a strong candidate sending shockwaves reverberating through the opposing party.

The Democrats problem in this case is that the Ney District has a conservative base. The only candidate that could stand a chance at winning would be a moderate. Moderate Democratic candidates don't seem to be the focus of the Democratic party at the moment. Thus the lack of a high profile candidate

Politics of Abortion

2006-02-21T11:07:00.000-06:00

The Supreme Court is scheduled to take arguments this fall on whether "partial birth abortion" is constitutional or not. If the High Court rules reinstates the 2003 law banning the practice look for conservatives and liberal candidates alike to use it as their platform.

Its an understatement to say that both sides of the argument are passionate about their cause. That being said, candidates must tread lightly before plunging their political aspirations into the fray.

How will things play if the law is reinstated? That depends on where you are. There are pockets within both red and blues states that play opposite of what one would assume.

Rendell Opposes Voter ID Bill

2006-02-21T09:15:00.000-06:00

Governor Ed Rendell said that he'll veto a bill that would require voters to show identification at the polls because he believes such a mandate is unconstitutional and would disenfranchise some of the state's most vulnerable residents.

We have to show Id to get into bars, write checks, and a lot of other everyday tasks. As long as the bill provides a for the poor to have ID's without economic burden, then there is no justification for this veto. If people are disenfranchised from voting because they have to show an ID then they have other problems. Other states have passed similar measures in order to combat voter fraud.

Rendell cited the opinion from the League of Women Voters that there has been no evidence of election fraud in his state. Sorry Rendell, that's not an unbiased source. Tennessee, Ohio, Michigan, West Virginia and Wisconsin have all recently been investigated for voter fraud.

Deroy Murdock from the National Review, notes that unchecked voter fraud is widespread partly because it is so rarely met with swift, stiff punishment.

A Rasmussen poll finds that 82 percent of Americans, including 75 percent of Democrats, believe that "people should be required to show a driver's license or some other form of photo ID before they are allowed to vote."

So what is the real reason for this veto? The investigations of each of the above states were into actions by liberal and Democratic party supporters. Rendell is afraid his party will be adversely affected, not the voter.

Thanks to Michelle Malkin for some fact finding

Ports and Politics

2006-02-21T08:47:00.000-06:00

The President's port deal as we know it is a questionable. That being said there will be Republicans who will win politically in the fight against the deal.

New York Gov. George Pataki and Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich have questioned the aquisition of a British company running 6 U.S. ports by and Arabic company. National Security trumps economics is their mantra.

Both Congress and the Senate have also had bipartisan criticism for the deal.

By not going on the party line with the President these figures could reach voters beyond their party base. The only question is where does this issue stand come November, and how much of an opposition were they to it.

President Carter Could Sabotage Son's Senate Run With Statements

2006-02-20T20:34:00.000-06:00

This site featured an article about Jack Carter and his bid for a U.S. Senate seat. In that article, found here, I stated that President Carter could be a liability if he were to move out of the shadows from his son's campaign. He's now become that liability.

Former President Jimmy Carter published an opinion piece in the Washington Post that stated the U.S. and Israeli governments should allow the Palestinians to form a government without sanctions. It appears he is Pro-Hamas or at the very least an appeaser thereto.

This is exactly what his son's campaign did not need. The President is becoming a distraction that to Jack's campaign. The campaign cannot put all of its resources towards its own goals if it has to defend statements of his father.

This is a free country and President Carter is afforded the freedoms to say as he wishes. However, it is strategically the wrong time for him to say something controversial. This is the type of statement that can undermind his son's campaign.

Was Activist Campaign Financed By Taxpayers?

2006-02-20T14:08:00.000-06:00

According to Hugh Hewitt, the LA Times is soft in their investigation of Rob Reiner's First Five State Commission. You can visit Hewitt's article on the LA Times coverage here. I am going to stick to what the political landscape to what this story might be.

While the topic seems benign the controversy is about Reiner's conflict of interst as the sponsor of Prop 82, which seeks to raise 2.4 billion from from a 1/7% tax hike on Californians making more than $400,000 anually.

Reiner spent $25 million on an ad campaign "preschool for all." That is the largest state-funded ad campaign in the California's history. The ad campaign coincided with the petition drive to get Prop 82 on the ballot.

The question raised by many was whether Reiner used his official capacity a director to use state funds to push his activist agenda onto the ballot.

The person who can be affected the most by this is Governor Schwarzenegger. With mounting criticism on his leadership abilities he needs to take action of some sort. California Republicans are asking why he hasn't replaced Reiner, who's appointment to the commission expired before Arnold was governor. At the very least he needs to make a public investigation into the matter.

If the governor doesn't act on the issue in some manner he will lose his base and chances at re-election in the fall.

Paul Hackett Revenging Party Abandonment

2006-02-20T09:47:00.000-06:00

Paul Hackett is bitter and getting his revenge. The Toledo Blade reports that his campaign did some opposition research just before he quit the race and is now revealing that research to the public for Mike DeWine's campaign to use against Hackett's former primary opposition Sherrod Brown.

The research released about Brown was something everybody can do. It looked at his congressional record on bills concerning national security. This stuff is public record. The Toledo Blade cited several instances that show weaknesses for Brown on this issue.

There are several campaign lessons that can be learned from this.

Prepare a campaign to defend against every possible source of opposition. Democrats took for granted that Hackett would take one for the team when they made the strategic switch to Brown. Open communication between party leaders and Hackett might have prevented this situation.
Know who your opponent has hired. Consultants show themselves through their work. Their past often reveals their preferred tactics, messages, and ethics. You can anticipate what their future actions will be based on how they handled similar situations in the past.
Treat members of your party with care. Scorn them and be prepared to pay a price.

There is one other thing that can hurt Brown. But its not related to the Hackett issue. It was in a quote by Brown at the the end of the Toledo Blade article.

"On most issues, voters are where I am."

Brown has been trying to position himself as a mainstream candidate. With that comment he implied that he wasn't mainstream with voters on some issues. Don't give voters a reason not to vote for you.

Democratic Candidate's Campaign in Jeopardy

2006-02-17T06:01:00.000-06:00

Ohio state Sen. Charlie Wilson withdrew a batch of signatures that he had filed on Monday because he thought he could get more signatures and resubmit them to the county election board. He is the only candidate for the Democrats in the 6th District Congressional race. It is currently held by Ted Strickland who is a Democratic candidate for governor. The district is heavily Democrat. A lack of a candidate would be a major blunder for Democrats.

A spokesperson, Carlo LoParo, for Secretary of State Ken Blackwell said "On the surface, it does appear to be a problematic issue for Mr. Wilson."

The fact that the phrase "on the surface" was in the comment makes me tend to beleive a compromise may be worked out. John Payne, director of the Columbiana County Elections Board, said he believes Wilson's initial filing should be approved when the county elections board meets Wednesday. Payne, a Democrat, says he would like to be appointed to replace Wilson as a state senator if he wins the congressional race.

Ah, for the days when the only problem Mr. Wilson had was that kid Dennis from next door.

Democrats not Happy With Ads Featuring Families of Fallen Soldiers

2006-02-16T21:24:00.000-06:00

Donna Cassutt, Associate Chair,Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party sent this e-mail to fellow DFL members. It wants its supporters to complain to the T.V. stations airing the advertisements featuring soldiers and the parents of fallen soldiers supporting the war in Iraq. They want to get the ads removed from the airwaves before they hit national airwaves.

Dear DFLer,
I’ve heard from many of you that you are disturbed by the misleading "Midwest Heroes" ads produced by Progress for America Voter Fund that are currently being run by KARE 11 and WCCO. The ads erroneously make a connection between Iraq and the 9/11 terrorists attacks and suggest that the war in Iraq will prevent an attack by Al Queda in America. The 9/11 Commission findings clearly state that there was no connection between Iraq and the the Al Queda terrorists attacks on 9/11. We must call for media responsibility regarding this issue. We have extraordinary sympathy for our troops and their families and believe that while our soldiers’ role is to protect the citizens of our country, it is our role as citizens to protect our soldiers and to make certain that they are not misused. It is a travesty that the tragedies of five countries and the deaths of our brave men and women are being used in this type of propaganda.Right now, our state is a testing ground for these ads. If Minnesota speaks out and says no to this ad, the entire country can thank us. What we do here, now, will have an enormous impact on the success or failure of this kind of swiftboating in 06.
You can view the ads at: http://www.midwestheroes.com/
Additionally, WCCO did a Reality Check stating that the ad is misleading and partly true, which in my mind means that it is partly false. See it at: http://www.wcco.com/video/?id=14609@wcco.dayport.com
If you feel that this ad is doing a disservice to our troops and is misleading at best, and pure propaganda at worst, please call:
KARE 11 at 763 546 1111
WCCO at 612 370 0611
to ask for the removal of the ads. Letters to the Editor in your local paper would be helpful to point out the untruths being communicated to citizens as fact. Thanks in advance for being a voice of truth, and for all that you do to improve the state of our nation and state.
DFL Chair Brian Melendez will be holding a press conference at the State Capitol today at 2:30 to ask that this ad be pulled from the air waves. He will be joined by congressional candidate and veteran Tim Walz. Please tune in to your evening news to see coverage of this important event.
Sincerely,
Donna
Donna Cassutt, Associate Chair,Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party

DFL's intention was to contain these ads to Minnesota and keep them from being used nationally. This intent backfired when the e-mail came into circulation. Their protest of the ads has only caused more attention to be brought to the ads.

It still remains to be seen as to whether this incident will have additional public relations implications on the DFL or Progress For America Voter Fund who produced the ads.

Midwest Heroes Videos
Thanks to Powerline for the copy of the DFL email

Agreement Made in Warrentless Surveillance Program

2006-02-16T16:22:00.000-06:00

Senate Intelligence Chairman Pat Roberts said he has worked out an agreement with the White House to change U.S. law regarding the National Security Agency's warrantless surveillance program and provide more information about it to Congress.

This was done in order to eliminate the need for an inquiry into the program. An investigation could extend the life of the wiretapping issue as a campaign tool for Democrats.

Though Roberts believes the agreement will make the matter go away, I don't believe that the Democrats are going to allow it to die down that easily.

Poll States Rendell Edging Swann

2006-02-16T11:33:00.000-06:00

According to a poll conducted by Quinnipiac Polling Institute Rendell leads Swann 48-36%. As a person who is skeptical of any poll, especially one which gets touted by the news media, I had to look further into their polling record to see how accurate they have been in the past. If they have a strong record then maybe I'll put a little credence into the poll.

To be fair I also took a look at a Rasmussen Report. This report is a month old already but I will revisit it again when the new poll appears. They show that Rendell leads Swann by a 45-43% margin. That is not even close to the spread given by Quinnipiac.

I did some digging and found a report on polling done by SurveyUSA. Here are their findings.

As far as accuracy Rasmussen was wrong in 1 of 39 polls while Quinnipiac was perfect on all five it conducted.
5.1% of Rasmussen's polls were outside of the margin of sampling error compared to 20% to Quinnipiac. Only the Global Strategy Group (28%) and the LA Times (40%) did worse.
Using the Mosteller, Traugott, and Shipman methods to determine the average error on the margin of victory Rasmussen did better than Quinnipiac in all methods.

Given that evidence I would say that Rasmussen's numbers are more credible. This race is nowhere near a walk in the park for Rendell as Quinnipiac proclaims.

I also looked at other polls done by Quinnipiac and it raises questions about their polling samples.

They said that Rendell would win big over Fisher in the 2002 governor's race. While Rendell did win, he only gathered 54% of the vote. That is hardly a big win.
Last December they polled Americans on Alito. They said the public was mixed on Alito and that he should state his position on abortion.
Last May they say Americans support Roe Vs Wade by 2-1 and support a filibuster on judicial nominees.

The results of these polls make me question their objectivity in their polling.
Again the moral of this story is never take numbers from polls on faith. Either do your own research or look at a number of polls to get an overall look at things.

Two Construction Unions Exiting AFL-CIO

2006-02-15T22:28:00.000-06:00

Things are set for another shake-up in organized labor. According to the Wall Street Journal The once mighty AFL-CIO is losing two more unions to its roles bring the number to six within the last year.

Laborers' International Union of North America and International Union of Operating Engineers announced that they are leaving the AFL-CIO citing that there is an environment of bureacracy within the Building and Construction Trades Department that is out of touch with their needs. The Building and Construction Trades Department is a subgroup of the AFL-CIO.

This is bad news for Democratic party candidates. The power of the AFL-CIO were the amount of manpower it possessed. As it fractionalizes it loses that power. Now resources will go in multiple and possibly opposing directions.

Wise Words on Political Involvement

2006-02-15T19:31:00.000-06:00

After more than a decade of writing for Campaigns and Elections Ron Faucheux is leaving the magazine to join U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu (D) from Louisiana as her Chief of Staff. In his final commentary he offered some words of wisom to all involved in politics.

"I am compelled to make the case that for political involvement to be worthwhile - for it to merit the sleepless nights, the begging for money, the blood-thirsty antagonism and the endless hours of back-breaking exertion - it must be about something more than just winning and personal ambition."

""But for democracy to work as a system, and for the people it is meant to serve, winning is only the start of it. After you win, you then have to govern, and the governing part - the part that matters most to voters - is something that's far too easy for political practitioners to lose sight of in our attempts simply to win elections."
Campaigns and Elections, February 2006

These are words of advice all of us in politics need to adhere to.

Congresswoman Demands President and Attorney General Give Wiretapping Documents to Congress

2006-02-15T15:48:00.000-06:00

Congresswoman Louise Slaughter proposed bill HR 644 to the House Judiciary Committee. Here is the preamble of that bill explaining its purpose.

Requesting the President and directing the Attorney General to transmit to the House of Representatives not later than 14 days after the date of the adoption of this resolution documents in the possession of those officials relating to the authorization of electronic surveillance of citizens of the United States without court approved warrants.

This was not a bill of substance. There was never any chance it would pass out of Committee due to an investigation already in progress by the Department of Justice. The Committee in fact felt that to make documents public related to national security would set a dangerous precedent. I agree with that assessment. Congress is the biggest source for Washington gossip.

This bill was a designed for campaign strategy. The Democrats need to keep the wire-tapping issue at the forefront of voters minds. They have to maintain their push to keep a potential weakness of the Republicans in the headlines.

The problem with this tactic is that it can only be maintained for so long. It takes a lot of effort to keep a headline fresh. This issue will only make it to voters in November if there are further developments in the investigation between now and November. Any attempt to manufacture a way to keep it at the top of the news would result in a backlash at the polls.

Partisan Politics and the MSM

2006-02-14T11:05:00.000-06:00

Sorry for this rant.

Bloggers make no apologies for being partisian. They tend to wear their politics on their sleeves. But I have an issue with the main stream media telling us that they give fair an unbiased journalism when they really don't.

How often do we hear something criticising Republicans whether it be Bush, Abramoff, or Delay. We also see them dig hard to find dirt on many others of one party such as Pombo, Allen, and Blackwell. They run these stories into the ground keeping them on the front pages for months without any new "real" evidence of wrong-doing.

But on the flip side, what kind of coverage do the same newspapers offer on the behavior of Democrats? They give a short paragraph and hide the story on page 28 to their wrong-doings if they print it at all.

These are stories that would have been front page news for at least a week if not more if they had been Republicans.

Congressman William Jefferson is being investigated for bribery
Harry Reid/ Jack Abramoff connection
Hillary Clinton's Campaign Finance Probe
Jim Doyle's "Travelgate"

Many may disagree with me but I don't see the majority of the media putting as much effort in searching for misconduct in Democrats as they do in Republicans.

Related stories from Politicalnut: Harry Reid Connected to Abramoff, Politics Ain't Easy in the Big Easy No More (Part II), Accusations Fly in Trial of Wisconsin Campaign Workers, Most Corrupt Congress?

Scalia on the "Living Constitution"

2006-02-14T10:08:00.000-06:00

The issue of whether or not our constitution is a "living document" is bound to be an issue on the campaign trail this fall. It always is.

While giving a speech on Monday to the Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies Scalia criticized those who believe in what he called the "living Constitution." Here is what he said.

"That's the argument of flexibility and it goes something like this: The Constitution is over 200 years old and societies change. It has to change with society, like a living organism, or it will become brittle and break."
"But you would have to be an idiot to believe that. The Constitution is not a living organism, it is a legal document. It says something and doesn't say other things."
Proponents of the living constitution want matters to be decided not by the people, but by the justices of the Supreme Court."
"They are not looking for legal flexibility, they are looking for rigidity, whether it's the right to abortion or the right to homosexual activity, they want that right to be embedded from coast to coast and to be unchangeable."

How will this issue play in campaigns? Proponents of a living constitution will make no headway in their arguments to the people. There are only a handful of areas in the entire country where this issue can get into any sort traction. But campaigns across the country will try to use it.

Hackett Feels Betrayed By Democrats

2006-02-14T00:23:00.000-06:00

“For me, this is a second betrayal. First, my government misused and mismanaged the military in Iraq, and now my own party is afraid to support candidates like me.”

Those were the words of Paul Hackett after he announced he would drop out of the race for Ohio Senate. He claims that Senators Schumer and Reid asked him to step aside to let Congressman Sherrod Brown contest Senator Mike DeWine's incumbancy. These Senators had been instrumental in persuading Hackett to challenge DeWine before Brown declared his candidacy.

This was clearly a strategical decision for the Democrats as Brown was out-performing Hackett in fundraising (a key element in a contentious general election). By forcing Hackett out the Democratic hierarchy is hoping to unite the party behind a single candidate.

Though the tactic is distasteful it was probably a smart decision by Democrats.

NY Times article

Celebrity Candidate vs Incumbent, a Breakdown of the Pennsylvania Race for Governor

2006-02-13T09:28:00.000-06:00

In a normal statewide race in Pennsylvania one would expect a Democrat to be the victor. The cities of Pittburgh and Philadelphia are too heavily Democrat for Republicans to win. Democrats win these types of races 64% of the time with an average margin of 52%. Incumbent Democrats get around 57% of the vote.

So what about this year's governor's race? The keyword in the above statement is that the race is normal. Lynn Swann is not a normal candidate. He is known as a celebrity candidate. Here is a breakdown of how the celebrity factor can help Swann's campaign.

He has the network available to get financial backers from the start of his campaign.

His voter recognition numbers are higher than the incumbent due to being in the NFL and network television for more than 30 years.

Swann has the ability to move more voters to his side than Rendell. I say this because people are more firm in their opinions of experienced politicians. Lynn Swann, though highly recognizable even among non-voters, is still considered a political neophyte. He can win people over if he demonstrates that he has a firm grasp on the job and the issues of the people.

NOTE: Being a celebrity candidate can also hurt you. If you can't demonstrate that you can do the job you may be eaten alive by voters (see the Arnold Schwarzenegger saga).

In addition to being a celebrity Lynn Swann has who he is and what he has done to help him win.

In the NFL he played for the Pittsburgh Steelers during their "Steel Curtain" days. Pittsburgh fans have the loyalty that goes beyond political parties. He will steal votes from Democrats who are Steelers fans. With the win in the Super Bowl look for a strong Steelers faction at the polls to support Swann.

He is also an African-American. African-American candidates usually get stronger support from African-American voters. What makes this significant for Lynn Swann is that African-Americans tend to vote for Democrats.

The combination of the above two factors are related. They will allow Swann to weaken the Democratic stronghold of those urban areas. He may even win some of areas in and surrounding Pittsburgh which is unheard of in a Republican candidate.

Rendell won his last election by less than 150,000 votes. If half of those people (plus 1) vote for Swann, Swann wins. That is less than 2% of the expected turnout for this race. With all the factors mentioned earlier I think Lynn Swann can easily get those numbers.

Official Lynn Swann for Governor site

More from Howard "the Mouth" Dean

2006-02-11T19:42:00.000-06:00

Here is a quote from Howard Dean in an interview published in today's Salem News.

"When Richard Nixon mislead the nation and obstructed justice he was harming the system of justice and the respect for the presidency," the Democratic National Committee chairman said. "But this administration has done more than that. They have leaked military secrets in a time of war in order to fulfill their political agenda."

Dean is the best tool Republicans have to help them keep control of the White House, Senate, and Congress. The leader of a leading political party should be more careful when making abrasive comments.

The intent for the many comments and accusations that Howard Dean has thrown out to the public is intended to ignite the support of his party's base. Such a tactic can work but can work against you just as easily.

A rally cry for your base should never be as such that it can incite your opposition's base. This is especially so if you are the minority party. What's the good if you get your base to the polls but lose because you got more of your opponent's base to the polls as well?

See Story

Harry Reid Connected to Abramoff

2006-02-10T09:18:00.000-06:00

The Democrats have called the Abramoff scandal a Republican problem and have the repeatedly stated that culture of corruption in Congress is a problem only for Republicans. Howard Dean has stated numerous times that no Democrat received any money from Jack Abramoff or his clients.

The associated Press found billings and correspondence for a period of more than three years between Minority Leader Senator Harry Reid and Jack Abramoff's clients, firm, and lobbying partners. Reid received around $68,000 in donations from them.

As far as political ramifications this has the potential to hurt Democrats. Reid had been a vocal critic on the Republicans and corruption. But by having connections to the Abramoff's firm and receiving money from it Reid loses some credibility to lead the charge on the matter.

Reid doesn't need to have done something wrong for this to hurt him. If public perception associates him with Abramoff then the damage is done.

The political damage goes farther than Reid. It weakens the ability of the Democrats to use the "culture of corruption" as a campaign issue.

In fact, this could help Republicans. The attacks on Republican corruption had fallen from the foreground n the headlines and was replaced by Democratic antics in the Alito hearings and vote. If more Democrats are found to have the same type of connections to Abramoff as Senator Reid, look for the Republicans to take the momentum with the issue. Campaigns are often won on such momentum.

Democratic leaders such as Harry Reid, Howard Dean, and the bunch need to remember a basic rule of politics. Never make an absolute.

Olympics and Politics

2006-02-10T00:50:00.000-06:00

As the Olympic games start today it is only fitting to do a spot on them.

The charter for the Olympics is for people to put aside their differences for a short period of time and enjoy the camaraderie of each other, and compete for the joy of sports. It was meant as a time for politics and rivalry to be left behind.

The reality of the Olympics is the competitiveness exhibited between rival countries, and the political games sometimes played between nations. Here are some of the most notable moments where politics was an Olympic event.

1936 Berlin: Jesse Owens vs Hitler
1952 Helsinki: Eastern bloc refuses to share Olympic Village
1956 Melbourne: Suez crisis and Soviet invasion of Hungary overshadow Games
1964 Tokyo: South Africa not invited because of Apartheid
1968 Mexico: Mexican Massacre
1972 Munich: Munich Massacre
1976 Montreal: 22 African nations boycott over apartheid
1980 Moscow: US, West Germany and Japan boycott
1984 Los Angeles: Soviet team holds revenge boycott

But not all political ties to the Olympics are bad. In an era when the cold war was at its peak, a team comprised of mainly no-names, led by coach Herb Brooks defeated a Russian powerhouse that had not been beaten in more than a decade.

The moment was the sports version of the space-race and has been dubbed Miracle on Ice.

Lt. Gov. Healey for Massachusetts Governor

2006-02-08T23:28:00.000-06:00

Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey announced she will make a bid to become governor. If elected, she would become the state's first elected woman governor. Her platform is lower taxes and education reform.

Its hard to imagine a Republican in charge of the state the Kennedy's built. But Healey, if successful, would be replacing Republican Mitt Romney.

Her chances aren't as bad as they would appear at first. The Democratic base in the state is migrating out of state and many who remain are disenfranchised by how the party is being led. The Mass. GOP has not been able to take advantage of the trend. For her to win, Healey must find a way to engage those disenfranchised voters.

James Webb Enters Virginia Senate Race

2006-02-08T23:10:00.000-06:00

James Webb, former Navy Secretary, announced that he will fight Harris Miller for the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbant George Allen (R) for US Senate.

Webb served as Navy Secretary during the Reagan era. Webb has the political knowledge to give a strong campaign.

He also is deep in political connections. However, it remains to be seen whether those connections back Webb. In 1994 Webb backed Senator Chuck Robb when he was challenged by Oliver North. But in 2000, Webb switched allegiances to George Allen when he challenged Robb.

At this point I'm not sure who will win this primary, which is set for June 13. Whoever it is will face a tough challenge against former Governor and incumbant Senator George Allen.

Looking deeper into the Ohio Governor's Race

2006-02-08T10:03:00.000-06:00

If you look at the map below you would say that there is a lot of red. That means that Ken Blackwell won a lot of counties in his 2002 race for Secretary of State. So you would assume that he has a strong advantage over his Democratic rival Ted Strickland.

That assumption could be wrong. Strickland is a popular Congressman from the eastern part of the state. This means that the results for Blackwell in those areas will be even softer than they were when he ran four years ago.

Strickland has his issues too. He hasn't run for a statewide race as highly profiled as this. While he is popular with his party, he must run a race beyond his congressional district and into the rest of the state that is strongly Republican.

What are Strickland Opportunities in this race?

Republican scandals may have shaken the confidence of Blackwell's base as well as independents. A large DEM turnout could shift the election in his favor
He is from the most Democratic congressional district in the state. He is a vote leader in that area

What are Blackwell's Opportunities?

He is an experience campaigner in a statewide campaign
He has higher name recognition statewide
As an African-American he could steal minority votes from the Democrats

What Are Strickland's Weaknesses?

Hasn't run a statewide race
Democrats don't rule urban areas in Ohio like they do in other states. They only control the counties where Cleveland and Youngstown sit.
Most counties are Republican

What are Blackwell's Weaknesses?

The GOP as a party is vulnerable due to many issues
Blackwell's results from 2002 were below the norm for a statewide Republican candidate (see the map below). That means that the party base wasn't nearly behind him as they were other candidates in that year.

What is my Projection for this race?
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Blackwell wins with 55-58% of the vote.

Scranton Quits PA Governor Race

2006-02-07T18:31:00.000-06:00

Bill Scranton quit the race for Penssylvania's governor on Tuesday. He cited that his decision was based on his belief that he could not garner the support from party leadership.

The Scranton campaign has been in a tail-spin since the incident that resulted in the firing of his campaign manager a couple of weeks ago.

Scranton's decision opens up the Swann campaign to concentrate on their November opponent, current Governor Ed Rendell. This is bad news for Rendell who hoped for Swann and Scranton to fight for position and split their party faithful's loyalties.

Right now most polls favor Swann over Rendell. It is always a bad sign for an incumbant to have less than 55% in the polls, especially this early in an election season.

Now that the primary has been decided, I will give a deeper analysis of this campaign next week .

Son of Former President Running for U.S. Senate

2006-02-07T11:09:00.000-06:00

Jack Carter announced he was joining the Democratic ticket in challenging Republican Senator John Ensign. He made the announcement from a union hall in Las Vegas.

Jack's pedigree as first son will help him with credibility and name recognition. This race will definitely be one to watch as Carter could make a strong run at Ensign. In order to do so he will have to do something counter-intuative. He needs to keep his dad out of the campaign as much as possible.

One would think that having a President in your corner would be a good thing. However, President Carter has made some poor PR decisions as of late that could minimize his son's political power. His comments on how the U.S. should deal with Hamas as well as his association with a key figure in the oil-for-food scandal in Iraq could be a potential liability to his son.

Judging from how things were done with this campaign at this point it looks like Jack has found the best possible use for President Carter in his campaign. The President never spoke during the announcement preferring not to steal his son's thunder. Afterwards he told the press that he will work mainly on the fundraising side of the campaign.

Denver Mayor - No to Gubernatorial Bid

2006-02-06T14:05:00.000-06:00

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper announced that he will not join the race for governor of Colorado. He stated his decision was based on an unfinished job in Denver.

"We have begun so many programs and so many initiatives with the city," he said. "We got a bunch of them done but there are still some big ones that aren't done. One of the reasons I ran for elected office was I wanted to show people that local government could carry through on its commitments, that it would practice what it preaches, that people could put the good of this city above their own personal ambition."

This comes as a blow to the Colorado Democratic party as Hickenlooper was considered to be the top vote-getter out of all their possible candidates. His popularity as mayor of the largest concentration of voters in the state would have made him a formidable candidate.

Bill Ritter is now their lead candidate. Currently polls show him not as popular as either GOP candidate Marc Holtzman or Bob Beauprez.

This race was considered a strong possibility as a grab by the Democratic party. The potential is still there but is no longer as promising as before today.

Campaigns - Week in Review

2006-02-04T09:36:00.000-06:00

All eyes were on the Samuel Alito confirmation, State of the Union Address, and the Republican leadership voting. Here is a quick rundown of the rest of this week's happenings.

Swann Closes in on Party Endorsement

Lynn Swann received 33 verbal supports from county party leaders. If everyone stays to their commitments then Swann would have the 180 votes needed to garner the state party's endorsement in the primary on May 16. The vote for endorsement is February 11.

Scranton has vowed to stay in the race no matter what the results of the caucus. His campaign has really stumbled after the incident with his former campaign manager.

Reilly Doesn't Do Homework on Running Mate

Massachussetts Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Reilly received an embarrassment when his running mate Marie St. Fleur dropped out of the race after one day.

Her reason for dropping out was because of $12,000 in unpaid taxes owed to the IRS and defaulting in $40,000 in college loans.

Reilly should have done his homework before he put his own reputation on the line.

Schwarzeneggar Out Of Money

Schwarzeneggar's campaign has made a severe blunder over the last year. They spent $44 million dollars last year on unsuccessful special election initiatives. This has left his campaign with less than $150,000 for this campaign season and a debt load of about half a million dollars. The question remains, why did he spend all of his money the year before an election. The only conclusion I can think of is that he doesn't think he can win so he tried to put everything he had on the initiatives.

Its a case of putting all your eggs in one basket. Unfortunately for Arnold, he dropped the basket.

Boehner Wins

2006-02-02T12:58:00.000-06:00

John Boehner defeated Roy Blunt in the second round of voting. The results were 122-109.

Though public support was behind John Shadegg, the Arizona Congressman dropped out of the first round after receiving 44 votes.

Blunt edged Boehner in the first round. It appears that those who voted for Shadegg moved their allegiance to Boehner and that gave him the votes for the victory.

Sheehan and the ACLU, More Complimentary Than Peanut Butter and Jelly

2006-02-02T11:28:00.000-06:00

Q: What goes better together than peanut butter and jelly?

A: America's favorite mother and litigation unit.

Thats right. Cindy Sheehan is claiming her civil rights were violated last night after being tossed from the SOTU. You can bet its only a matter of time before the seekers of justice, the ACLU, will come to her aid.

Both have independently pushed their agenda to the point of nausia. Put the two together and they give a new meaning to the loony left.

Maybe PB and J is the wrong analogy. I should have used ice cream and cake. Getting too much ice cream too fast can really give you a headache.

Voters are Stupid

2006-02-01T09:25:00.000-06:00

Most voters really are stupid. People should vote for a candidate based on the ideas and qualifications of the candidate. Unfortunately that rarely happens. Approximately 20% base their electoral decisions in such a way.

In my experience with campaigns here are how the majority of voters make their decisions.

My parents and my grandparents voted for the (place name of party here) party so I will vote for the candidate of that party.

At first glance their is no issue with this type of voter. It is alright to take the views of those whom you respect into consideration when making decisions. However, This type of voter will not vote in a race if they don't like the candidate of their party. Nor will they cross party lines to vote for a candidate they like of a different party.

I will vote for the candidate with the most yard signs.

The rationale for these voters is that this is the candidate that has worked the hardest campaign and thus deserves their vote. This is bad because anybody with a financial backer can put out yard signs regardless of what they stand for.

I recognize this candidate's name

This is for voters who have got absolutely no clue, but they see a familiar name on the ballot. This is why campaigns spend so much money on advertising. How else could anyone explain Arnold Schwarzneggar winning the Governor's race in California (let alone a a Republican).

This candidate has the popular support in the polls

As I have written in Why I hate polls, polls can be both deceiving as well as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Basing a decision on a poll creates mob behavior.

I could go on for forever on these kinds of issues. Basically I'm saying don't be a stupid voter. Base your vote on the merit of the candidate and how their ideals match up to your own.

Alito Confirmed

2006-01-31T10:17:00.000-06:00

AS of 11:10 AM EST Justice Samuel Alito received the 51 votes needed for confirmation. Vote was 58-42.

Bush's Job Approval: 50%

2006-01-30T21:55:00.000-06:00

According to Rasmussen Reports President Bush's approval rating has hit the 50% mark.

It has been on the rise since the Democrats started to balk on the Alito vote. It spiked when they started to discuss the use of the fillibuster and is a great example of how out of touch the liberal left actually is.

As a friend at Redstate put it, "they've bought into their own propaganda".

Chafee is a Republicrat

2006-01-30T19:38:00.000-06:00

These are the words of Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island in relation to how he would vote on Judge Samuel Alito.

"I am a pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-Bill of Rights Republican, and I will be voting against this nomination."

Translation: He acts like a Democrat, says he's a Republican. A Republicrat.

Ramifications of the Filibuster Attempt

2006-01-29T23:10:00.000-06:00

Politics can be fickle. Democrats have spent the last couple of months crying out about the corruption in the Republican party. They spent countless hours trying to gain an advantage on their counterparts for the upcoming elections. But if they choose to attempt a filibuster on Monday, then all that effort will go to waste.

Voters tend to react most to an issue that is the most fresh news. The filibuster attempt will cause the corruption story to fade into the background.

There are political consequences to this filibuster. The Democrats become the party of obstructionist with the attempt or success of the filibuster. This muddles their message of "culture of corruption." Thus neutralizing this issue a bit.

Democrats in blue states will not be hurt. Possibly they will help them a bit as it is this base that is asking for the filibuster. However, those in contestable races in blue states may make their races tighter with the action.

Those Democrats that have spoken out against the filibuster such as Byrd or the members of the "Gang of 14" who vote for cloture, will not be affected unless in hard liberal areas.

Basically, a filibuster attempt can only help a few Democrats such as Hillary Clinton, Ted Kennedy, and John Kerry. That is it can help them in the short term. But the party as a whole loses the momentum it created during the Jack Abramoff issue. It kills their chances of controlling either the Congress, the Senate, and hurts their 2008 Presidential hopes.

Only in California, LA Times Endorses Republican

2006-01-27T13:24:00.000-06:00

On Thursday the L.A. Times endorsed Paul McCloskey for Congress. Here are a couple of sniplets from the article.

“The best thing that could happen for the district, the state, the nation and possibly the Republican Party."

"He's the kind of Republican who in other states might be called a Democrat."

The article did a good job of explaining that he was a veteren opposed to Vietnam, supported John Kerry, "And as for environmentalism — well, it has been a long time since Teddy Roosevelt was in the White House."

If this guy is so aligned with what they call the great Democrat causes, then why isn't he running as a Democrat?

But I'm not done on this guy yet. Little Green Footballs pointed out that the Times failed to mention McCloskey's ties to the Institute for Historical Review. WHo are they? IHR is the leading Holocaust denial organization in the U.S.

Had the TImes given a fair assessment of McCloskey they should have provided that information.

Also keep in mind that this is the state that elected the intellecual Schwarzneggar. So its quite possible that this could be a case where a liberal newspaper endorses a Republican, and it doesn't automatically kill his chances at winning.

Byrd Supports Alito

2006-01-26T20:13:00.000-06:00

Robert Byrd (D) West Virginia will vote to affirm Judge Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court. This is according to an article by James Rowley at Bloomberg.

In a Senate floor speech Byrd stated "I refuse simply simply to toe the party line when it comes to Supreme Court justices. I hail from a conservative state. And, like a majority of my constituents, I prefer conservative judges.''

Whether or not these are the true feelings behind Senator Byrd's comments is up to debate, though I choose to give him the benefit of the doubt. They were made days after a West Virginia businessman, John Raese announced his candidacy against him.

John Kerry Blames George Bush for Country's Divisiveness

2006-01-26T15:50:00.000-06:00

John Kerry gave a speech about his concerns with Judge Samuel Alito. This is an exerpt from his tangent on George Bush within that speech.

“President Bush had the opportunity to nominate someone who would unite the country in a time of extreme divisiveness. He chose not to do this, and that is his right. But that he didn’t and how this nomination happened tells us a great deal about this presidency and how politics is driving this process. "

John Kerry speaks on divisiveness in politics. But in order to be unified don't both sides have to give concessions to the other? I'm not blaming this whole thing on Democrats. Republicans have problems of their own. But what have Democrats done in their part to unify the country?

Odds are that had Kerry won the Presidency and in the seat now occupied by Bush, he would have chosen a judge as far opposite as John Roberts as possible. It is also just as probable that he would have picked another liberal judge to replace Sandra Day O'Connor.

Politics is driving this process. But the reigns of the process are being led by mules.

Coburn and McCain to Fight Pork Projects

2006-01-26T11:56:00.000-06:00

The following is a letter sent today by U.S. Senators Tom Coburn, M.D. (R-OK) and John McCain (R-AZ). In summary it states that they intend to challenge all spending earmarks, better known as pork projects, on the Senate floor.

As a fiscal conservative I applaud the effort.

January 25, 2006

Dear Senator,

As you know, the American people are currently engaged in a vigorous debate about our country’s spending priorities. Many are openly discussing the propriety of earmarks and legislative policy provisions inserted into appropriations bills at the direction of individual lawmakers. We believe that the process of earmarking undermines the confidence of the American public in Congress because the practice is not open, fair, or competitive and tends to reward the politically well-connected.

According to the Congressional Research Service, the number of earmarks has skyrocketed over the past decade, from 4,126 in 1994 to 15,268 in 2005. We are committed to doing all we can to halt this egregious earmarking practice and plan to challenge future legislative earmarks that come to the Senate floor. This will give all Senators the opportunity to learn the merits of proposed earmarked projects and affirm or reject them. Even though votes on earmarks will undoubtedly be quite time-consuming, we sincerely believe that American taxpayers are entitled to a more thorough debate and disclosure about how their money is being spent.

We also believe that it is wrong to violate Senate Rules by inserting new provisions that are not included in either a Senate or House bill into conference reports at the last minute. The unsavory practice of inserting such provisions at the last minute stifles debate and empowers well-heeled lobbyists at the expense of those who cannot afford access to power. Decisions about how taxpayer dollars are spent should not be made in the dark, behind closed doors. Therefore, we also plan to challenge future violations of Senate Rules, and, as necessary, we will offer proposals to strengthen current Senate Rules in order to increase transparency and accountability in the expenditure of taxpayer dollars.

While we know that this course of action may not be popular in Washington, D.C., we believe that it is the right thing to do. We look forward to working with you over the next year, and we hope that you will join us in a spirited debate about the direction of our country.

Sincerely,

Senator Tom Coburn, M.D.

Senator John McCain

Press Release

Scranton Fires Campaign Manager

2006-01-26T10:56:00.000-06:00

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial candidate Bill Scranton fired his campaign manager James Seif stated "The rich white guy in this campaign is Lynn Swann." during a televised call-in show on Wednesday.

Sranton issued an apology to Swann stating "(Seif's remarks) in no way whatsoever reflect my views or those of my campaign. I want to apologize to Lynn Swann, his family, supporters and PCN viewers for the offensive and disturbing comments made on my behalf."

Lynn Swann's campaign had no comment on the incident.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Scranton 's hopes for governor took a big hit because of this incident. The PR damage is obvious.

The flow of his campaign organization is a mess now as well. Imagine that your boss is fired in the middle of your company's busiest time of year. You get a new boss. This boss does things a little different than the old one and isn't familiar with anything. Scranton's campaign is in the same type of situation.

Bill Scranton's hopes are fading quickly. It was an uphill battle before this incident but is now a mountain climb. Look for Lynn Swann to take at around 60% of the vote.

Betty Montgomery for Ohio Attorney General

2006-01-25T12:13:00.000-06:00

Today Betty Montgomery dropped out of the Ohio gubernatorial race. She is instead focusing her efforts on winning the Attorney General post vacated by Jim Petro. He is trying for the GOP bid to the Governor's mansion against Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.

This is a good move for Montgomery as she was well behind in polls and finances against both Petro and Blackwell. She should have the inside track on the position due to her experience at the position. She was the Attorney General for Ohio from 1994 to 2002.

The big loser in all of this is Jim Petro. He is losing momentum to Ken Blackwell in the Governor's race. It is possible that he may change gears like Montgomery and file for Blackwell's position as Secretary of State. If that should happen he would be the front-runner in that race.

Shadegg Gains Steam

2006-01-24T11:15:00.000-06:00

The battle for who will replace Tom Delay is getting more interesting by the day. About two weeks ago Rep. Roy Blunt (MO) announced that he had enough pledges to win before being rebuffed by John Boehner (OH). Then on January 13 a new face appeared in the race.

Rep John Shadegg (AZ) announced his desire for the seat and is still considered a darkhorse to win. But he is gaining momentum.

Both Blunt and Boehner have had leadership positions in Congress. Thus their involvement in leadership that is perceived as tainted with corruption has given Shadegg and extra boost as he has not been in the same association as them.

Blunt claims to have 90 members supporting him. Boehner claims 44. It is unlikely that either are as high as they say they are. Basically its the peer-pressure tactic. Its reminds me of a peacockpuffing itself up to show its colors and attract others to it.

Shadegg says that the numbers his competitors proclaim were commitments made before he jumped into the fray. When asked how many support him he replies by saying he isn't going to spend time publicizing his endorsements as he needs to focus on getting a majority.

Tom Osborne Edging Heineman for Nebraska's Gubernatorial Bid

2006-01-23T09:50:00.000-06:00

Its not the norm for an incumbant to fight in a primary in order to keep his job. Such is the case for Dave Heineman, Republican Governor of Nebraska. He is in a dogfight with popular congressman and former University of Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne.

My Prediction is Osborne will win the primary and general election. His popularity from his coaching career and success as a congressman will give him the advantage he needs.

Osborne is in a double-jeopardy situation similar to Ed Case in Hawaii. He is risking his current position for another. The difference is he's more popular in his state than Ed Case is in Hawaii.

With the situation of football heroes running for Governor for their respective states (.i.e. Lynn Swann). Would it surprise anybody if the likes of Mike Singletary ran for Governor in Illinois or john Elway in Colorado? Ha ha! ha?

GOP Calls for Rally behind Katherine Harris

2006-01-21T23:32:00.000-06:00

Katherine Harris started her campaign with little support from her party. Republicans feared that she would act as a lightning rod for Democrats to get behind incumbant Bill Nelson. There is doubt that she can beat him. Her role in the Presidential recount as Secretary of State is notorius among Democrats.

Her fundraising abilities and wide name recognition have deterred other Republicans from entering against her. However, the big money is yet to come as donors have waited to see if someone else files their candidacy.

On Saturday top Republicans including Governor Jeb Bush backed Harris for the position. They called for the rest of the party to follow suit. Complete party unity in this campaign is unlikely though most of the party will be behind her. It will start slowly but reach full speed in plenty of time to make this a close race.

Nelson won his last election with only 51% of the vote. His Senate seat is one of the most vulnerable for the Democrats. Current polls and media articles claim that he holds a large lead over her. I expect that number to diminish between now and the May primary. After May the campaigning will go into overdrive.

The candidates are fairly even in capabilities for winning the seat. Nelson doesn't have an overwhelming base, but the base he has will be loyal. Harris has a larger base but her negatives could cause a split in votes.

I don't know who really has the advantage at this point. I'll have a better idea by the end of May and will give an update on this race at that time. The only thing I know is that Florida will have some contentious races this year.

Accusations Fly in Trial of Wisconsin Campaign Workers

2006-01-20T21:25:00.000-06:00

The case involving 4 Kerry campaign workers vandalizing election vehicles last November was full of drama.

The defense lawyers for Sowande A. Omokunde, Michael Pratt, Lewis Caldwell, and Lavelle Mohammad claimed their clients were innocent. They stated that a group of Democratic operatives led by Oppel Simmons performed the crime in question and led authorities in the direction of their clients.

The Defense then got desperate. They hinted that the Republican Party cut the tires to implicate the Democrats. When this tactic didn't work they claimed that John Sweeney, AFL-CIO president and witness in the case, coordinated efforts to use violence as an intimidation tactic across the country.

Even though this crime happened in the 2004 elections, it could have ramnifications in 2006. Omokunde is the son of Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D).

Normally she would be safe as an incumbant since she took almost 70% of the vote in '04. But the defense of her son pointed fingers at both the Democratic party and Democratic supporters. Never bite the hand that feeds you.

The defendants made a plea deal.

Hotbed in Hawaii

2006-01-20T09:14:00.000-06:00

If you are a Democratic Senator in Hawaii you've got it good (in more ways than one). Normally. But Senator Daniel Akaka is feeling the pressure from within. Fellow Democrat and Congressman Ed Case is challenging him in the primary.

Case is running against Akaka not because of his record, but because of his age. Akaka is 81 while Case is 53.

Why would a 2nd term Congressman take on a veteran Senator for a seat that his party already controls? Its a succession plan. Case is trying preserve the seat and prevent Akaka from dying in office. If he were to die the successor to his seat would be chosen by Governor Linda Lingle, a Republican.

Whether or not his plan would work is questionable. While his premise is good, an incumbant always has the advantage, even if he's 81.

This is a big risk by Case because if anybody from his party files for his seat, then he's done. He can only retain as a write-in candidate or if nobody files for his party's nomination.

Odds are somebody will want to take his seat and leave Case in the cold. Granted, how cold can it get in Hawaii?

Former "Apprentice" Contestant Runs for Congress

2006-01-19T12:47:00.000-06:00

Lynn Swann isn't the only celebrity to run for public office in the state of Pennsylvania. Raj Peter Bhakta is running on the Republican ticket against incumbant Allison Schwartz (D) for the state's 13th congressional district seat.

You might ask how a "celebrity" can run for office and stay below the media wire. Well its simple. Bhakta just isn't an organized candidate. He appears to be grasping at straws to find himself and this campaign appears to be one of those attempts.

If he can get a good political mind behind his campaign he could stand a slight chance. The 13th district is not at all solid. The largest victory by a candidate since 2000 has been by 53% of the vote. A Dynamic and organized candidate could make it a race. Unfortunately Bhatka isn't it.

Trent Lott to Try Re-election

2006-01-17T14:15:00.000-06:00

Trent Lott announced that he will seek a fourth term. He cited his need to push the post-Katrina cleanup in Mississippi as his top reason for trying to retain his post.

There is also speculation that he may try to regain a leadership position as well. No word on what that would be at this time.

It is an uphill battle for State Representative Eric Fleming to beat the popular Trent Lott. Had he not decided to run it would have made the open seat a hotly contested battleground.

Lott's announcement has more implications than just in Mississippi. It lowers the odds that Democrats can take control of the Senate.

Ohio Governor Update

2006-01-17T14:07:00.000-06:00

It seems that the Petro camp is losing steam with Phil Heimlich. This makes this race a lot clearer as to who will face off in November.

Between Montgomery and Blackwell I think Blackwell will come out ahead. She will give a great effort and make it close. Especially in the Cleveland area, but Blackwell's numbers appear to be stronger elsewhere.

As for the Democratic ticket, Fingerhut has been gaining a grassroots groundswelling in the last week. However, I think there is just to much ground to be made against Strickland for him to overcome him. Strickland had a much higher name recognition to begin the campaign.

So it comes down to a chess match between Blackwell and Strickland. Who's going to win? At this point your guess is as good as mine.

The Battle Royale for Ohio Governor

2006-01-16T13:02:00.000-06:00

Bob Taft (R) has reached his term limit. In the wake of the seat becoming open ten people have filed for the job. Some of the candidates are a recent who's who in Ohio politics. Others are more like a "who's that" kind of candidate.

Out of all these candidates the only ones creating any sort of buzz are Blackwell, Montgomery, Petro, Fingerhut, and Strickland. Blackwell currently leads Republican candidates while Strickland leads the Democrats. Whoever wins their party’s nomination for governor will face a long and gruesome battle. This will be especially close if it ends up Blackwell vs. Strickland.

Normally Blackwell would have a commanding edge as Secretary of State. However, there is a lingering distrust in him as the public perception is he obstructed the elections by disuading minorities to vote. I am currently analyzing the races in Ohio for the past 10 years and have found no evidence that this rumor is true. Also, have those who are making these accusations ever seen a picture of the man. I hardly think that this man (below) would chase minorities from the polls.

Ken Blackwell
Courtesy of Ohio Secretary of State website

Here is a breakdown of the candidates courtesy of USElections.com .

Larry Bays (R) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: Wayne County Park Commissioner

Ken Blackwell (R) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: Secretary of State
Former Posts: State Treasurer, Cincinnati Mayor

Pete Draganic (R) (running mate not named)
Occupation: General Contractor

Betty Montgomery (R) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: State Auditor
Former Posts: Attorney General, State Senator

Jim Petro (R)
Current Elected Position: Attorney General
Former Posts: State Auditor, State Representative
Running Mate: Phil Heimlich (R) - Hamilton County Commissioner, former Cincinnati Councilman
**NOTE: Heimlich officially quit the ticket as of 1/16/05

Eric Fingerhut (D) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: State Senator
Former Posts: Congressman, US Senate Nominee (2004)
Occupation: Attorney

Bryan Flannery (D) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: State Representative
Former Posts: 'Secretary of State Nominee (2002)
Occupation: Health Care Consultant

Ted Strickland (D) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: Congressman
Occupation: Psychologist

Bob Fitrakis (Green)
Occupation: Attorney, College Professor, Newspaper Editor
Political Activities: Progressive Activist
Running Mate: Anita Rios (Green) Ex-Green Party National Co-Chair & Liberal Activist

Bill Peirce (Libertarian) (running mate not named)
Occupation: Retired College Professor & Economist

I Hate Polls

2006-01-14T12:56:00.000-06:00

Never trust a poll. They say numbers never lie, but the methodology in which they were taken might.

Polls were created to give a snapshot of what the public perception is on a particular topic.

Over the years we have learned that polls can be swayed by how the poll questions are presented or by taking the poll from a sample population that is not representative of the overall population.

What is most unfortunate is that political campaigns have learned that they can use flawed polls to be used as a PR tool. They count on the peer pressure effect to turn flawed results into real results.

Unfortunately this is successful because people don't often enough question what they hear or see (especially when it comes to numbers). So remember, when you hear anybody quote poll numbers, whether it be the news or a campaign, question the results.

The Tale of Two Toms, Delay Vs Campbell

2006-01-13T05:40:00.000-06:00

As if Tom DeLay doesn't have enough things to worry about. He now has a primary opponent in lawyer Tom Campbell.

Campbell is no rookie to politics. He was part of Bob Dole's staff during his run for President.

Delay has been a popular choice for 22 years. This is the first time he has received a viable threat from a candidate in his own party. There are no numbers I can run to give a detailed analysis of how this race is going to shape up. However, seeing how the national spotlight has focused on Delay's issues as of late, Campbell stands a good chance of defeating the former majority leader.

The winner of this primary will face the winner of a hotly contested Democratic primary. The GOP winner will win the position.

Politics in the Big Easy Ain't Easy No More (Part 2)

2006-01-11T19:17:00.000-06:00

A former aide to Congressman William Jefferson (D), Louisiana, pleaded guilty to aiding and abetting bribery of a public official and conspiracy. The sentencing of Brett Pfeffer is March 31. He could get up to twenty years.

Pfeffer testified in court that he had been by a congressman to assist in promoting business opportunities in both Nigeria and Ghana. In his testimony Pfeffer claimed that the congressmen demanded approximately 5 to 7 percent of the new companies in exchange for his help in promoting the deal to African government officials and others.

Though Pfeffer never mention Jefferson by name, document entered into evidence clearly show the unnamed Congressman to be Jefferson. Pfeffer has agreed to cooperate with investigators as they probe into the Congressman's involvement.

The bad news for the Democrats is that it hurts their ability to use ethics as a campaign platform. The corruption issue is no longer a one party problem as they claimed earlier in the week.

Politics in the Big Easy Ain't Easy No More (Part 1)

2006-01-11T17:41:00.000-06:00

It has been a big week in Louisiana for politics.

On Tuesday, Kat Landry filed a petition to recall Governor Kathleen Blanco (D). The task is daunting and most likely will be unsuccessful without a grassroots firestorm. In order to recall the governor, Ms. Landry and her supporters faces severe challenges.

She needs 1/3 of the registered voters of Louisiana to sign the petition to recall Governor Blanco. This amounts to just under a million voters. Getting voters t turn out in a regular election is difficult enough, let alone for special circumstances such as this. Add to the fact that approximately 10% of the state's voters are displaced from the Gulf coast and the project gets even steeper.

To top it all off this needs to be done in 180 days.

Ms. Landry is a political neophyte. While it is refreshing to see someone take leadership, the coordination and political capital needed to pull off this feat is beyond her grasp. This can only be pulled off if the state Republican party or other organization of that magnitude steps in.

Harris Miller to challenge for US Senate in Virginia

2006-01-10T17:19:00.000-06:00

As we get back into the campaign season, I will be looking at potential races of interest.

First off is Harris Miller. Today he announced that he will take on George Allen (R) for a US Senate seat in Virginia.

Miller was the president of the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA). So money should not be an issue.

George Allen won his last election with 52.3%. This is hardly an overwhelming number. It is only about 130,000 votes. Virginia has been consistantly Republican in federal races but all have been contestable.

His most visible weakness is issues. When pressed for how he stands on issues such as abortion, the War in Iraq, and the economy, Miller stated he would give those answers in short time. That is a no-no in campaign strategy. These are standard issues questions. He should have prepared answers for them before he announced his candidacy. By not providing answers to where he stands it appears as if he has no stance on those issues (see the related article on Why Democrats Lose).

Campaigns are marathons. Many things will happen between now and November. Can Harris Miller (D) beat incumbant George Allen (R)? I think that Allen will win with about 54% unless something dramatic happens in this campaign.

Congresswoman Slaughter Claims Republicans are for Sale

2006-01-08T01:20:00.000-06:00

In a weekly radio address, Congresswoman Louise Slaughter of New York stated

"Under Republican guidance, America has truly been put up for sale to the highest bidder." she continued by saying "lobbyists are now writing the bills passed by Congress," she contended. "They have infiltrated every aspect of our government. Their money and donations shape the opinions of corrupt lawmakers in a way that public opinion no longer does."

Here are the facts as provided from opensecrets.org and the Federal Election Commission.

In the last 14 years

1. Democrats have received more money annually from lobbyists by a 6-2 margin

2. Democrats have received 53% of the lobbyist dollars during that time

3. Congresswoman Slaughter has received over $1 million dollars from Political Action

Committees since 1997

(Ms. Slaughter, Political Action Committees do not give money and not expect results from their candidates. In fact it is common for a PAC to hire lobbyists as well.)

The problem of corruption is not partisan. It is an American problem.

The problem of lobbyist influence is a growing problem. It is a long-existing problem. It is a bipartisan problem.

If Congresswoman Slaughter is prepared to play the "higher-moral fiber" card. Then she needs to have a better grasp of recent historical facts.

Where lobbyist Money Went

The Flip-Flopping NY Times

2006-01-07T11:57:00.000-06:00

I am confused. The following quotes are from the NY Times from 2 years apart. Is it me or do they contradict themselves? I'll let you be the judge.

“After an egregiously long delay, Attorney General John Ashcroft finally did the right thing yesterday when he recused himself from the investigation into who gave the name of a CIA operative to the columnist Robert Novak. Mr. Ashcroft turned the inquiry over to his deputy, who quickly appointed a special counsel.”

–New York Times editorial, “The Right Thing, At Last,” December 31, 2003

“A democratic society cannot long survive if whistle-blowers are criminally punished for revealing what those in power don’t want the public to know - especially if it’s unethical, illegal or unconstitutional behavior by top officials. Reporters need to be able to protect these sources, regardless of whether the sources are motivated by policy disputes or nagging consciences. This is doubly important with an administration as dedicated as this one is to extreme secrecy.”

New York Times editorial, “On the Subject of Leaks,” January 4, 2006

Further Campaign Finance Reform Needed

2006-01-06T01:46:00.000-06:00

How important are lobbyists to Congressional members? Members from both parties collected $26.8 million for their campaign coffers in 2004. This money was splint 51%-49% between Republicans and Democrats. Every incumbent needs this extra source of campaign money in order to give them an advantage over their challengers.

In a speech to a Washington Rotary Club on Wednesday, Newt Gingerich stated that reform is needed in order to level the playing field for Congressional elections. But he also warned Congressional leaders to refrain from “lobbyist bashing” and focus on changing campaign finance laws to reduce the power of lobbyists. "You can't have a corrupt lobbyist unless you have a corrupt member (of Congress) or a corrupt staff. This was a team effort."

He finished by saying "If they (Republican leaders) intend to retain a majority, then they need to take the lead in saying to the country we need to clean this mess up. "But any effort to push this under the rug, to say this is just one bad apple: That's baloney."

I think he’s right. Looking at the dramatic increase in lobbyist influence over the last 15 years, it is disturbing. In 1990 only $3 million was given by lobbyists. It has increased by more than 8 fold.

Data and Graph Courtesy of the Center for Responsive Politics.

*The figures for 2004 do not include donations of "Levin" funds to state and local party committees. Levin funds were created by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002.

METHODOLOGY: The numbers on are based on contributions of $200 or more from PACs and individuals to federal candidates and from PAC, soft money and individual donors to political parties, as reported to the Federal Election Commission. While election cycles are shown in charts as 1996, 1998, 2000 etc. they actually represent two-year periods. For example, the 2002 election cycle runs from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2002.

NOTE: Soft money contributions to the national parties were not publicly disclosed until the 1991-92 election cycle, and were banned by the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act following the 2002 elections.

NFL-Great Lynn Swann Announces Candidacy

2006-01-05T01:46:00.000-06:00

This is no joke nor is it a rumor. Lynn Swann, 55. Declared his candidacy for the governor of Pennsylvania. If he is successful he will become the first African-American governor of the state.

Swann won 4 Super Bowl rings for the Pittsburg Steelers before joining ABC Sports after his retirement. His popularity from his playing days and constant visibility should give him an edge on an opponent in the primary.

If he wins the primary (and he should) Swann will most likely face Democrat Ed Rendell, who is seeking a second term at the post. Rendell won in 2002 with 53% of the 3.58 million votes cast.

Swanny should have a favorite son status amongst voters. The question is whether or not he can garner the approximate 125,000 votes he will need to take away from Rendell. I will further analyze this race in the spring should he win the primary.

Democrats Smell Blood

2006-01-04T13:43:00.000-06:00

Democrats are smelling blood as Jack Abramoff has made a plea deal with the DOJ. As the DOJ extends its investigations into legistlators and their staff the Democrats see as an opportunity to use ethics as a campaign issue.

One word of warning about this tactic for the Democracts. Thirteen members of Congress (all Democrats) voted against the impeachment of President Bill Clinton. They fought this saying that personal ethics had no bearing on his job. While the context of then and now is different, in an election fact doesn't override public opinion. Using ethics as a campaign issue coul be a slippery slope.

Those who are guilty should be prosecuted. Republicans and Democrats alike need to be held accountable for their actions. What is just as important as the investigation is what legistlators are doing to prevent this from happening again.

Trump Says No

2006-01-04T01:40:00.000-06:00

In a follow up to an earlier story. On Tuesday Donald Trump denied rumors that he would run for governor.

"I'm not going to run for governor because I'm having too much fun doing what I'm doing now," Trump told the New York Post. "I have no interest in running for public office at this time."

State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno had said named Trump as a possible Republican candidate for NY Governor.

NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is the only declared Democratic candidate for governor. Trump told the Post "He's (Spitzer) done an amazing job," and he (Trump) might support Spitzer for governor.

The only question here is about Bruno and the NY Republican party. If the name they leaked for a possible candidate for their party is supporting the opposite party's candidate, then a)how desperate are they for a candidate, abd b) how much are the NY GOP in disarray?

Donald Trump - Republican candidate for NY Governor

2006-01-02T10:28:00.000-06:00

Rumors have started circulating in the last week that Donald Trump may make a bid for the Governor of New York. What is surprising about this is that he will supposedly run as a Republican.

We've seen what happens when a celebrity runs for a race such as this (Gubernator Shwarzneggar). But if this race happens it will be a much more solid race.

The question remains as to how Trump stacks up on ideology. He has shown disdain to both parties when asked political questions on shows like Late Night with Conan Obrien. This labels him as a political maverick of sorts.

There is a saying "Put your money where your mouth is." In politics this means that people tend to give towards their ideologies. while this isn't 100% true. People in Trump's position will give to the power structure in a defensive move or to seek favor from those in office.

However, Donald Trump has an extensive history of giving in politics. here is a summary of his giving from 1998 to present.

Noteworthy candidates:
Arlen Spector, (R), $1500
Rudi Giuliani, (R), $1000
Erskine Bowles,(D) , $1000
Hillary Clinton,(D) $2000
Tom Daschle, (D) ,$4000
John Kerry,(D) , $500
Joe Lieberman,(D) , $2000
Harry Reid,(D) , $5000

Republican candidates: 36 times for $25,500.
Democratic candidates: 36 times for $35,150.
Advantage DEM candidates by $9650

Republican Committees and PACs: 7 times for $39,000
Democratic Committees and PACs:14 times for $92,000
Advantage DEM Committees and PACs by $53,000

TOTAL Contributions from 1998 to present:
REP 43 times for $64,500
DEM 50 times for $127,150
Advantage DEM by $62,650

From this evidence it is likely that Mr. Trump would run as a moderate to moderately liberal Republican.

For more information on the contibutions made by Donald Trump, candidates, or committees visit the Federal Election Commission.

All data used in this analysis provided by the FEC. If you would like a printout of my analysis email me at admin@politicalnut.com

Laus Deo

2005-12-31T13:50:00.000-06:00

“Laus Deo.” This is a Latin phrase meaning “Praise be to God.” Why is this on a website that tries to be fair?
The Washington Monument is 555 feet, 5.125 inches high. At its peak on the aluminum cap is the phrase “Laus Deo.”
In an era where freedom from religion tends to be the more politically correct view, I find it ironic the the phrase “Praise be to God” can be seen from any point in our Nations Capital.

Why Democrats Lose Elections

2005-12-30T00:28:00.000-06:00

Democrats complain that they have no voice. They give excuses of everything from Republicans gerrymandering Congressional districts to the Great Right-Wing Conspiracy."

These excuses are weak on premise. As a political consultant I often surf the web for what kind of political messages are out there. When I opened the Democrat party's website something hit me that I have felt for a long time. But to see it from the primary source is a different experience.

The Democratic National Committee has no policy strategy. Translation they don't promote any agenda other than anti-Bush or anti-GOP. I had to dig to find a platform of any kind. It was in a transcript of Howard Dean's Christmas radio address and provided no concrete ideas for how the DEM's would accomplish its goals.

Look at the main page of their website. There are no policy matters being showcased. If the Democrats wish to take Washington they need to be more specific on what they will do when they get there.

Without a platform voters view the party as lacking leadership. The Republican's have their own issues but they have a platform and they are in power. For those readers who aren't familiar with the mechanics of electoral campaigns, incumbants will win unless the voter is convinced that they need fired. This happens only when a candidate has a weakness (i.e. unethical behavior) and he/ she has a strong opponent (i.e. strong platform).